League One 26/27: A state of belonging

Notts County’s 3-0 demolition of Salford City in the promotion decider means Bromley now know who they will face in League One next season. Their adventure is set in stone.

It might not be a European adventure, but it certainly feels like a luxury staycation. Never mind the established League One names, Bromley will battle fallen giants and upwardly mobile promotion hunters as they seek to find their footing on the ladder.

But which clubs belong at this level, and which sides will be seeking alternative accommodation at the season’s end? And where do Bromley rank among them?

The list of fish out of water is, of course, headed by Leicester City and Sheffield Wednesday.

Most fans see Leicester as the big name in the division, given they were Premier League champions as recently as 2016. Bromley completed their first-ever campaign in the National League that season. How times change.

Financial mismanagement and poor decision-making at both clubs have seen the relative giants fall to the third tier. But while you might point to the quality in Leicester City’s squad and the recent takeover at Sheffield Wednesday, there is no guarantee that either club will bounce back immediately, such is the reality of life in the cut and thrust of League One.

There can be no doubt that it will be surreal to see Bromley play at both the King Power and Hillsborough, as both stadiums comfortably clear 30,000 on a good day. 

For this writer and football fan of a certain vintage, there is more history and significance to the visit to Hillsborough. The tragedy of the Hillsborough disaster notwithstanding, in my youth, Wednesday’s stadium was the venue for big ties before teams reached a Wembley final. As such, it holds far more cultural cache than the King Power.

Away from the big two, there are other former Premier League clubs in the league. Blackpool, Bradford City, Barnsley, Huddersfield, Luton Town, Reading, and Wigan Athletic have all dined at England’s top table at one time or another.

Some of them, like Luton, have graced the Premier League more recently than others, but a glance at the clubs’ stadiums (Luton aside) speaks to an era of all-seater ground improvements that befit the top flight.

Luton 12,000

Blackpool 16,500

Bradford City 25,000

Barnsley 23,000

Reading 24,000

Wigan 25,000

Huddersfield 24,000

On the Not The Top 20 Podcast recently, it was pointed out that League One is experiencing a logjam of clubs that have the infrastructure to compete in the Championship. Those clubs, however, find themselves trapped in the third tier competing with a raft of similar clubs. And they’re not all former Premier League alumni, either.

In this category are clubs that feel like they could or should be in the Championship yet lack the former Premier League tag.

Multiple football clubs in League One aspire to this bracket, but the reality is that some are better equipped than others.

Plymouth Argyle have spent 8 seasons in the Championship out of the last 25, so they have every right to feel like they deserve another crack at that level. 

Peterborough, meanwhile, might be considered something of a yo-yo club, even though they have only been in the Championship in 3 of the last 25 seasons. But no matter what label you pin on them, they consistently mount a challenge for the League One play-offs.

Oxford United are back in League One after two years in the Championship, and they will be targeting an immediate return. They recently received final planning approval for a new 16,000-seater stadium, so it is clear where they are looking to press on at a higher level.

MK Dons have infrastructure befitting a Championship club and should have won League Two with the resources at their disposal. Make no mistake, they will not be in League One to make up numbers next season and will throw their weight around to try and make it happen.

I ummed and ahhed about Doncaster Rovers, but it would be easy to forget that 5 of their last 21 seasons have been spent in the Championship. Their 15,000-seater stadium also speaks of a club with facilities that don’t look out of place higher up the ladder.

This season’s beaten play-off finalists, Stockport County, are another worthy name in this category. It may feel a little absurd to see them appear here, as they were in the National League with Bromley as recently as 21/22, but while Dave Challinor is manager, County will keep pushing to get into the Championship. It is easy to forget that at the turn of the century, Stockport were playing in the second tier of English football. Terrible mismanagement sent them spiralling into a freefall that took them all the way down to the National League North, but now they’re back and only looking up.

Wycombe Wanderers have only ever had one season in the Championship, but they are undoubtedly a club that always targets the League One play-offs. Since 19/20, either side of their one-season appearance in the Championship, Wycombe have never ended below the top half of League One. 

Disclaimer: You can be at your natural level in League One and still be aspirational. 

Leyton Orient were last in the second tier in 81/82. Since then, they have floated between the third and fourth rungs of the ladder, with a memorable National League stint thrown in for good measure. Orient reached the League One play-off final in 24/25, so last season’s 20th-place finish will feel like a huge underachievement, but whether they’re fighting for promotion or battling relegation, League One feels like their natural level.

Notts County are a similar story. Now that they have clawed their way back into League One, they could use a few seasons of stability at what feels like their natural level before they consider grandiose ideas of pushing on to the Championship. Old-school fans will remember that County would have been in the Premier League had they not been relegated from the old First Division in 91/92.

Last season was Mansfield Town’s second season in the third tier in 21 seasons. Is this or League Two their natural level? I suspect their fans would argue they are now busy establishing themselves as a League One club.

Stevenage may have reached the play-offs this season, but for the majority of their existence, they were a non-league team. Next season will mark their fourth consecutive season in the third tier, so it is clear that they are a well-run club that consistently overachieves. Their brush with the play-offs may have made them a little more aspirational, but they have never been in the Championship before, so League One remains their natural level.

There is no getting away from the fact that every single pundit and bookmaker will have Bromley down as relegation fodder next season. No matter who Andy Woodman brings in over the summer, his side will remain favourites for the drop until they prove otherwise.

Bromley aren’t the only club facing long odds, though. On paper, a collection of clubs are competing to avoid the trapdoor.

Burton Albion haven’t been in League Two since 14/15 and were in the National League as recently as 08/09, but their seasons in League One have not always been ones of security. In fact, the Brewers have been in a relegation battle in each of their last three seasons, and arguably feel around the same size as Bromley.

Cambridge United were in the National League as recently as 13/14, but they now return to League One having bounced straight back from relegation. Their seasons in the third tier have generally seen them struggle, and like Bromley, they will feature in many pundits’ relegation predictions.

There is a pattern here of relatively small clubs with a non-league tradition being on a par with Bromley, which leads us to AFC Wimbledon.

Promoted two seasons ago through the League Two play-offs, Johnnie Jackson hailed his side’s League One survival as an amazing achievement. I suspect he would say the same in 26/27 if they avoid the drop. Resource-wise, Wimbledon cannot compete with the majority of teams in League One and would probably agree that League Two is, for now at least, their natural level. 

If you have followed this article closely, you will notice that I have only identified four teams that are roughly on par with Bromley.

While it might seem like these clubs will face the trap door together, football doesn’t work like that, and more importantly, neither does Andy Woodman.

Need I remind you that Bromley were favourites for relegation from League Two in their debut season, yet became an outside shot for the play-offs and finished in mid-table. And the Ravens certainly didn’t feature in any pundits’ predictions for promotion from League Two last season, and we all know how that story ended.

What is clear, however, is that the financial reach required to merely tread water in League One is increasing year on year, and this will be Bromley’s first-ever attempt to compete.

A recent article by Matt Hughes in the Guardian laid bare how deep Robin Stanton-Gleaves' pockets will need to be if Bromley are to stand a chance on and off the pitch. The figures involved are eye-watering.

Read article here

If Bromley are to escape the drop and begin to dream about making League One their natural level, they may well have to pull some real rabbits out of the hat this summer.

Where do you think they will finish?